That was the final bid on a 2,800-mile 2022 Ferrari 296 GTB Assetto Fiorano on BaT. What matters to me is not just the result but the direction: the car had already been listed on BaT in February 2024, and this latest sale confirms that the market is still revaluing modern hybrid Ferraris in real time.

That was the final price for a 653-mile 2021 McLaren Elva on duPont REGISTRY Live. I like this number because it challenges the common idea that everything modern is declining. Rare, unique, open-cockpit McLarens with the right specs and hardly any use still command serious money.

That is the low estimate for the 2024 Bugatti Bolide heading to RM Sotheby’s Monaco sale on April 25. One of 40, with 359 kilometers on the odometer, bill of sale only. When a car this new is already being staged like a trophy lot, I pay attention. The top end still wants drama, provided the car is rare enough to justify it.

The top end is still paying for stories that cut through, not just objects that show up.

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Topic: The Market Is Not Weak. It Is Selective

Framework: Market Analysis

This week, I do not see one market. I see three lanes.

The first is the modern performance car that is still fighting for its long-term place in the collector pecking order. That is where I put the Ferrari 296 GTB Assetto Fiorano. The car that sold on BaT was not some thinly optioned base example. It had roughly $134,000 in options, special-order Blu Scozia paint, the Assetto Fiorano package, and just 2,800 miles. On paper, that is an easy car to defend. At $277,000, the market still treated it carefully. That does not make the car weak. It makes it unresolved.

The second lane is the genuinely rare modern exotic that still feels like an event. That is the McLaren Elva. duPont REGISTRY Live says the 2021 example that sold was finished in MSO Napier Green, showed just 653 miles, and landed almost exactly in line with the platform’s dRi valuation. More importantly to me, it is one of only 149 built worldwide and believed to be one of roughly 30 delivered to the U.S. That kind of car does not need broad market confidence. It just needs the right buyer awake at the right time.

The third lane is pure trophy inventory. The Bugatti Bolide sits there without apology. RM’s Monaco lot is a 2024 car, one of 40, showing 359 kilometres, carrying €291,000 in factory options, and estimated at €3.5 million to €4.5 million. Cars like that do not come to market because someone suddenly needs a more practical weekend toy. They come to market because the top end still pays for theater when the object is rare enough.

My read this week is simple: buyers are still spending, but they are being much stricter about what kind of story they are willing to fund. A complicated new Ferrari gets measured. A strange, low-mile McLaren gets rewarded. A one-of-40 Bugatti gets staged like a museum object with launch control. That feels about right.

This week, the three cars I kept circling back to were the same three shaping the market read.

duPont REGISTRY featured a one-of-99 example on March 31, which is enough to make me stop scrolling. The final road-going W16 Bugatti was never going to be subtle, and fortunately, it did not try.

duPont’s March 27 luxury listings roundup included one, and I still think the Divo occupies a useful corner of the market: rarer and stranger than a Chiron, but not yet discussed with the same tired reverence.

Carrio Motor Cars had five examples highlighted by duPont on March 26. When that many F12tdfs appear in one place, I pay attention, not because supply is suddenly loose, but because special-series Ferrari inventory tends to reveal where confidence is clustering.

Not because it is sensible. Because it is not. One of 149 built, one of roughly 30 U.S. cars, and it just proved it can bring seven-figure money in a real transaction. I would much rather own the strange McLaren the market still notices than the faster car nobody quite loves.

This is not advice for normal people, which I assume is why you are here. But when RM is carrying a nearly new Bolide at €3.5 million to €4.5 million with 359 kilometres and factory-option heft, the top end is telling you it still wants fresh, ultra-limited hardware. I would not rush to be the seller unless I had another one hidden somewhere unreasonable.

I like the car. I just would not shop it using 2023 logic. This latest BaT sale suggests the market still wants a cushion before committing to hybrid Ferrari money. Ignore that, and you will end up arguing with numbers instead of reading them.

Notes from the Grid

A reader asked me recently whether the modern exotic market is soft. I think that is the wrong question. The better one is: soft for what? Soft for complicated cars, still searching for collector certainty, yes. Soft for rare theater with almost no mileage, not really. The trick now is not spotting expensive cars. That part is easy. The trick is spotting which expensive cars still feel inevitable when the room goes quiet.

^{Until next time — drive the interesting ones,}

^{— Scarlett}